Analyzing Forest Products Markets and Forecasting Log Prices in the PNW
Location: The workshop will be held at the DoubleTree Hotel Lloyd Center at 1000 NE Multnomah St. in Portland, OR. The hotel can be reached at: 503-281-6111. The DoubleTree is at the Lloyd Center/NE 11th Avenue stop on the Portland light rail MAX system.
8:00 Instructor introduction and course overview
8:15 Timber Market Frameworks: What are We Trying to Answer? What are the Tools of the Trade?
8:45 Defining “Operable” and Analyzable” Markets: Group exercise on drafting geographic wood and timber markets. How do we account for size, location, operations, and data collection?
9:45 Detailing Wood Demand and Competition: Assessing the location, size, type, status, and risk of existing wood-using facilities.
10:45 Screening Wood Bioenergy Projects: How do we screen bioenergy projects for analysis of local wood markets?
12:15 Analyzing and Forecasting Stumpage and Delivered Prices: Identifying, organizing, and analyzing basin-specific stumpage and delivered prices. Group exercise on estimating future prices.
2:30 Estimating Supply Chain Issues: Evaluation logging capacity, transportation and rail lines, and port access.
3:30 Compiling and Communicating Final Results: Confirming final results and recommendations, producing final deliverables, and communication technical information and results.
4:00 Session adjourns
The course includes two 15-minute breaks, lunch, hard copies of all course materials, and electronic copies of supplementary reference materials and copies of the book “Wood for Bioenergy” (Forest History Society).
About the instructor:
Dr. Brooks Mendell is President at FORISK, where he leads the firm’s research program. He has over twenty years of operating, research, and consulting experience in forest business, bioenergy and finance. His experience includes roles in harvest operations and wood procurement with Weyerhaeuser, in management consulting with Accenture and in academia at the University of Georgia. A Fulbright Scholar, Dr. Mendell publishes analysis of timber markets, forest business and operations, and wood bioenergy. His forestry-related books include “Loving Trees is Not Enough”, “Forest Finance Simplified”, and “Wood for Bioenergy” (co-authored with Amanda Lang). Dr. Mendell earned BS and MS degrees at M.I.T., an MBA at the University of California at Berkeley, and a PhD in Forest Finance at UGA.