Analyzing Forest Products Markets and Forecasting Log Prices in the PNW

Agenda

8:00     Instructor introduction and course overview

8:15     Timber Market Frameworks: What are We Trying to Answer? What are the Tools of the Trade?

8:45     Defining “Operable” and Analyzable” Markets: Group exercise on drafting geographic wood and timber markets. How do we account for size, location, operations, and data collection?

9:30    Break

9:45     Detailing Wood Demand and Competition: Assessing the location, size, type, status, and risk of existing wood-using facilities.

10:45     Screening Wood Bioenergy Projects: How do we screen bioenergy projects for analysis of local wood markets?

11:30     Lunch

12:15     Analyzing and Forecasting Stumpage and Delivered Prices: Identifying, organizing, and analyzing basin-specific stumpage and delivered prices. Group exercise on estimating future prices.

2:15     Break

2:30     Estimating Supply Chain Issues: Evaluation logging capacity, transportation and rail lines, and port access.

3:30     Compiling and Communicating Final Results: Confirming final results and recommendations, producing final deliverables, and communication technical information and results.

4:00     Session adjourns

The course includes two 15-minute breaks, lunch, hard copies of all course materials, and electronic copies of supplementary reference materials and copies of the book “Wood for Bioenergy” (Forest History Society).